I had the usual office chat about gas prices going up and oil prices going down. I wanted to make sense of it, and so I looked it up. Since I did that work, here you go, take a look.
First, there is a Financial Post article tries to explain how oil prices are linked to gasoline. I just used the formula they have at the end to see if our prices added up (see below).
This is a handy website that forecast prices at the pump, and gives some current conditions to explain price movements (e.g. right now high prices are attributed to U.S. refineries facing outages).
Bummer, it’s going up.
On my quick addition (see below table), it looks like we’re being hosed by .22 cents on either the retail margin or at the refineries or both. Now, they sell off stock at whatever price they paid for it at the time…so today’s RBOB isn’t the actual feeder price of gasoline today. I’m not really satisfied by that explanation, so I think we are being hosed.
Looks like Van and Toronto have prices coming down until the most recent tick, and actually Calgary prices are higher than Toronto prices at the moment…The other thing to note is that WTI and Calgary gasoline prices sorta move together, but there is a seasonal element in the gasoline prices. I wanted to download the data, but they wanted money…so I couldn’t do the adjustment. But looking at it, it looks to be seasonally driven to some degree.
|Market Price||RBOB||$ 1.72|
|Convert From Gallons||in Litres||$ 0.45|
|Exchange Rate||CAD/USA||$ 1.31|
|in CAD/L||$ 0.59|
|Assumption||Canadian Refiners add||$ 0.05|
|Federal tax on gasoline||$ 0.10|
|Was .09, thanks NDP.||Provincial Fuel Tax||$ 0.13|
|Assumption||Retail Margin||$ 0.08|
|Double Tax!||GST||$ 0.05|
|Gas Prices that would make sense||Total||$ 1.00|