Prediction Market

We in Canada have an election coming up, and so I just want to remember what these things said about the candidates.

As of today I found a couple of markets.

This one seems mostly U.S. based, so I will discount it a bit. But it favours Harper : 60c to buy a 1 dollar bet vs. 30c for Trudeau and 14c for Mulcair.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/1301/Who-will-be-elected-Prime-Minister-of-Canada-in-2015

The Sauder School of Business has this one, which is both Canadian and has higher trade volumes.

https://predictionmarkets.ca/market.php?chart=volume

The Libs are currently trading higher for seat share (36.11 on Oct. 5 vs. 35.00 for the cons), but Oct. 5 was the first day for the libs to pass the cons, so we’ll see if the trends cross back to a Con win in the next few days. It also predicts a minority government, and that the libs will win the popular vote.

Finally, this is a monte-carlo simulation on all of the data from various polls by the Globe and Mail…also calling for a Con minority…although the write-up does support that the Libs are doing better in the last day or two, so it depends on how you weight the polls.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-election-forecast-2015/article25377958/

Just looking at the Sauder one, I think it is the best data re: skin in the game and Canadian. It would currently suggest that, while a Lib minority is the most likely result, a Con minority would not be that surprising, and in fact the markets had been calling a con minority for the last week or two. Which means we get an interesting election night.

Anyway, if you’re Cdn, register by clicking the below image and go vote on the 19th.

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